Slope stability analysis and landslide forecast via numerical modelling�to prognose natural and technogenic catastrophes

Project author: National Mining University, Ecology Department, Dnepropetrovsk (Ukraine)

Project objective: The basic idea of the project consists in improving validity of existing slope stability techniques at the expense of more authentic localization of potential sliding surfaces and determination of their profiles taking into consideration geological data and mechanical characteristics of rock mass, moisture, porosity, watering etc.

The objectives of the project are: 1. To raise validity of the methodology for slope stability evaluation and determine critical hydro-geo-mechanical conditions of landslide processes in soft rocks via numerical modelling for the best prognosis of natural and technogenic catastrophes. 2. To fulfil and compare numerical modelling of landslide-prone slopes in application to real sites (open-cast mines, urban areas, natural hills, dams etc.) in engineering software Phase2, FLAC, PLAXIS. 3. To develop a methodology for slope stability estimation under climatic changes AND variable hydro-geomechanical conditions for the best prognosis of natural and technogenic catastrophes.

Project background: Stability of slopes in natural ecosystems, urban areas and during surface mining is one of the significant problems that is directly related to environmental safety standards and cost-effectiveness of technological operations at open casts. There are a lot of techniques and approaches regarding qualitative and quantitative aspects of this issue have been developed up to date. Nevertheless, slope stability remains one of the most important issues because of complex influencing geo-mechanical and hydrological factors and requires continuous updating computational techniques.

Nowadays intensity of landslides has drastically increased both in Ukraine and around the world. The general reasons of this negative tendency are connected with climate changes, increasing amount of rainfalls, uncontrolled development of urban infrastructure and external loads on engineering foundations and underlying soils, extensive rate of open mining development etc. Geological structure, external loads and seasonal changes in soil moisture play important role in slope stability and often neglected during urban planning and surface mining. Increasing rainfalls conduce to extra moisture of soils that decrease their strength properties and cause landslides. Also seasonal raise of ground waters in loamy soils and plastic clays makes these layers water-bearing. All above mentioned factors cause extensive landslides and technogenic catastrophes.��